Canadian Home Sales See Downward Trend Continue in October
Ottawa, ON, November 15, 2023 – Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales declined on a month-over-month basis in October 2023.
National home sales fell 5.6% month-over-month in October.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 0.9% above October 2022.
The number of newly listed properties declined 2.3% month-over-month.
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) decreased by 0.8% month-over-month but was still up 1.1% year-over-year.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price posted a 1.8% year-over-year increase in October.
Monthly Housing Market Report
Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems posted a 5.6% decline between September and October 2023. The sizable decline was the result of fewer sales in most of Canada’s largest markets. (Chart A)
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in October 2023 came in 0.9% above October 2022.
“We’re only in November, but it appears many would-be home buyers have already gone into hibernation,” said Larry Cerqua, Chair of CREA. “The October numbers also revealed some sellers may be shelving their plans until next spring. That said, there are still a lot of people active in the market and looking to get deals done this year. If you’re looking for information and guidance about buying or selling a property in the current market, contact a REALTOR® in your area,” continued Cerqua.
“We know housing demand is extremely high all across the country, but October’s resale data was further confirmation that it probably won’t be manifesting itself in the existing home market for the remainder of this year and likely not until spring 2024 at the earliest,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “The rebound in activity this past spring was an example of what we might see next year. It will really come down to whether the Bank of Canada has to increase interest rates again, or whether by next March it’s simply a matter of how soon we’ll see the Bank make its first cut.”
The number of newly listed homes fell 2.3% on a month-over-month basis in October, the first decline since March.
With sales falling by more than new listings in October, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 49.5% — a 10-year low. The highest level for this measure was 67.9%, recorded in April. The long-term average for this measure is 55.1%.
There were 4.1 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of October 2023, up a full month from its low of 3.1 months in May. That said, it remains below its long-term average of near five months of inventory.
The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) declined by 0.8% on a month-over-month basis in October 2023. While price declines are still mainly an Ontario phenomenon, home prices are also now
starting to soften in parts of British Columbia. The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 1.1% on a year-over-year basis. (Chart B)
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was $656,625 in October 2023, up 1.8% from October 2022.