Fourth Quarter Housing Data Hints at Home Sales Rebound for 2025
Monthly Housing Market Report
NATIONAL RESIDENTIAL STATISTICS
Ottawa, ON January 15, 2025 – With much of the early fall surge of supply having now been picked over, home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems dipped in December 2024.
Sales were down 5.8% compared to November, but still stand 13% above where they were in May, just before the first interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada in early June (Chart A).
The fourth quarter of 2024 saw sales up 10% from the third quarter and stood among the stronger quarters for activity in the last 20 years, not accounting for the pandemic.
“The number of homes sold across Canada declined in December compared to a stronger October and November, although that was likely more of a supply story than a demand story,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “Our forecast continues to be for a significant unleashing of demand in the spring of 2025, with the expected bottom for interest rates coinciding with sellers listing properties for sale in big numbers once the snow melts.”
Highlights:
National home sales fell 5.8% month-over-month.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 19.2% above December 2023.
The number of newly listed properties dipped 1.7% month-over-month.
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) climbed 0.3% month-over-month and was only down 0.2% on a year-over-year basis.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was up 2.5% on a year-over-year basis.
Chart A
New listings dipped 1.7% month-over-month in December, marking three straight monthly declines following a jump in new supply last September.
“While housing market activity may take a breather over the winter with fewer properties for sale, the fall market rebound serves as a good preview of what could happen this spring,” said James Mabey, CREA Chair. “Spring in real estate always comes earlier than both sellers and buyers anticipate. The outlook is for buyers to start coming off the sidelines in big numbers in just a few months from now, so if you’re looking to buy or sell a property in 2025, contact a REALTOR® in your area and start getting ready today.”
With sales down by more than new listings on a month-over-month basis in December, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased back to 56.9%, down from a 17-month high of 59.3% in November. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%, with readings between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.
There were 128,000 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of 2024, up 7.8% from a year earlier but still below the long-term average of around 150,000 listings.
There were 3.9 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of 2024, up from a 15-month low of 3.6 months at the end of November but still well below the long-term average of five months of inventory. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months and a buyer’s market would be above 6.5 months. That means the current balance of supply and demand nationally is still close to seller’s market territory.
The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 0.3% from November to December 2024 – the second straight month-over-month increase.
Chart B
The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI stood just 0.2% below December 2023, the smallest decline since prices dipped into negative year-over-year territory last April.
The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price was $676,640 in December 2024, up 2.5% from December 2023.
The next CREA statistics package will be published on Tuesday, February 18, 2025.
